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Open Source Investor's avatar

Thanks for the write-up! Another thing to note is Coal India's fortress of a balance sheet - they have around INR 300 Bn in net cash with barely any debt. This further secures the dividend, even if they have a few quarters with lower earnings.

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Rahul Rao, CFA's avatar

True ! But Dividends + Growth is the real cocktail here if it works out, nothing better

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Mohit's avatar

Rahul you can also have a look at other companies in coal value chain. I feel if coal production goes up then the other companies would benefit as well e.g underground mining equipment makers, other state/private mining companies.

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Rahul Rao, CFA's avatar

Absolutely. Its been on my mind. Just need to get it done. Thanks

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Swaminathan's avatar

A good write up with deep research. One another reason for the stock price of CIL to come down is due to flooding in two of the mines during the monsoon last year, especially the mine in Chhattisgarh. Now, it’s back to near full capacity. The flooding is the only major risk which I foresee for this stock as the same happened in 2019 as well. Coal India is also foraying into minerals and is exploring opportunities in Australia and Argentina. This is a good diversification for a cash-rich and high dividend paying company. With an out-look of 2 years, the stock can generate a return of 15% CAGR on the conservative side.

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Subodh Kaistha's avatar

Well written .

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Rahul Rao, CFA's avatar

Thank you

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manjunath deshpande's avatar

Sir Can you tell why K&R Engineering stocks is hitting lower circuit of 20% from two days

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Rahul Rao, CFA's avatar

Sorry. I don’t know.

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Pranjal's avatar

Wonderful writeup Rahul. I loved the nuanced analysis on policy & previous cycle margins.

Thank you for sharing & keep up the fantastic work.

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Rahul Rao, CFA's avatar

Thank you 🙏🏽

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Kharthick R's avatar

One of the best write-ups that I hv seen of late with in-depth analysis. Thanks for this

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Rahul Rao, CFA's avatar

Thank you Kharthick 🙏🏽

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Prathamesh Adhikari's avatar

Super super thesis. I was looking for a good post to validate my thesis that Coal cant be buried yet, you have done a fabulous job.

What you think the future price can be, btw

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Rahul Rao, CFA's avatar

Thank you 🙏🏽 Don’t have a view on Price Prathmesh but if volume growth can happen at 8-10%, there’s a high possibility CIL can get rerated. Let’s see

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manjunath deshpande's avatar

Mind boggling post sirji 🙏 🙏

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Rahul Rao, CFA's avatar

🙏🏽🙏🏽

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Neil Parekh's avatar

Solid thesis and write up 🙌

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Rahul Rao, CFA's avatar

Thank you Neil. Are you the Neil Parekh from PPFAS? 😄

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Neil Parekh's avatar

Haha, missed by just one letter! He’s Neil Parikh, I’m Neil Parekh 😂

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